Analysis: 18 May 2006

After 1721 valid sets of votes from across Europe and beyond, and with people distributing a total of 99,760 points to their favourite songs, we finally have a result in the Soult.com Eurovision Jury Vote 2006!

It ends much as it starts, with Romania a clear winner on both the overall and Final-only Leader Boards - so congratulations to Mihai Traistariu, and we wait with baited breath to see if he can pull off a famous victory for Romania in the actual Contest on Saturday.

Just below Mihai, Anna Vissi and Kate Ryan have been engaged in a titanic battle for 2nd place almost since the Jury Vote 2006 started. Last week, Belgium's Kate regained the advantage; this week, providing a fitting end to their competition, we see Kate maintaining her lead on the Final-only Leader Board, but Greece's Anna recapturing 2nd place on the overall Leader Board. So, there really isn't much to choose between them, and both singers have reason to be optimistic prior to Saturday's Final (as long as Kate gets through the qualifying stage, of course).

Elsewhere, the top 15 of the overall Leader Board remains almost entirely unchanged, with just Sweden (7th) gaining a place at the expense of Germany (8th); and Malta (12th) swapping places with Norway (13th), representing Christine's lowest position to date.

However, 13th is still good compared to what's happening down at the bottom of the overall Leader Board. Sadly there's no respite for Andorra or Belarus, as both end the Jury Vote 2006 on a miserable 'nul points'. On this basis, the prospects of Jenny or Polina making it out of the Semi Final don't look good.

Talking of which, tonight (Thursday 18) is of course the night of the Semi Final, where we find out which ten countries will be making it through to Saturday's show! Predictably, the top 5 of the Jury Vote 2006 Semi Final Leader Board remains unchanged for the fourth successive week, with Belgium, Bosnia, Turkey, Russia, Sweden and FYR Macedonia all looking likely to qualify for the Final.

After gaining a place in the Semi Final top 10 for the first time a week ago, it's been another good week for Iceland's Silvia Night, who now consolidates her position by climbing to 7th. Finland's Lordi hold on in 8th, while Annette Artani from Cyprus holds on in the 9th slot. However, it isn't such a good week for Poland's Ich Troje - teetering on the brink for the last few weeks, they now drop down to 12th, suggesting that they may have a struggle to qualify for the Final.

Having fallen out of the top 10 a week ago, Armenia's Andre has staged something of a recovery in the last seven days, gaining points and climbing back up a place to 11th. However, he couldn't quite manage to see off Slovenia's Anžej Dežan, who reclaims the 10th spot - and the last qualifying place in the Final - that he gained and then lost a few weeks ago, gathering 81 points compared to Andre's 78. Certainly, it seems like Anžej may be Slovenia's strongest challenger of the last three years, and could finally help his country climb out of the Semi Final doldrums.

The top positions of the Final Leader Board are similarly static, with all the top 6 songs hanging on to their positions. Again, Sweden's Carola pips Germany's Texas Lightning, while Croatia and Macedonia both gain ground at the expense of the UK and Norway. The Jury Vote 2006 now has Daz Sampson finishing 11th in the Final, which would still be a good result for the UK compared to recent years. Down at the bottom of the table we still have a handful of the songs that are directly qualified for the Final, with the prospects for France, Switzerland, Israel or Latvia not looking particularly hopeful.

So there we have it - come back to this site over the next few days to see how close the Jury Vote 2006 result is to reality, or whether - for the first time - my own prediction is a more accurate indicator than the votes of Soult.com Eurovision visitors!

I do hope you've enjoyed the Jury Vote 2006 over the couple of months, and with a bit of luck I'm sure it is something that will be resurrected for 2007. A particularly thank you to the 1,721 of you who cast valid votes - there wouldn't have been a Jury Vote without you! You can also give yourself a pat on the back for being able to count to 12, and for understanding the words "you must not vote for your own country"... :)

Have a great Eurovision, and don't forget to come back here for all the reviews and reaction after the event!

Graham Soult
18 May 2006

Read previous analysis article (11 May 2006)

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