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2006 Archive
The 2006 Eurovision Song Contest was held in Athens, Greece - use the menu on the left to find out about all the entries, including my reviews and predictions.
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Semi Final Predictions
Well here they are - my predictions for the 2006 Semi Final. See my run through of the 23 contenders, in the order that they will be performed on the night.
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1. Armenia
My prediction for Semi Final: 11th to 13th
As well as having the honour of singing his country's first ever Eurovision entry, Andre will also open the 2006 Eurovision Song Contest, with Armenia performing first in the Semi Final. This is not a good draw at all - it is always hard to open the show, and Finland and Austria both floundered from this position in 2004 and 2005 respectively. Listening to 'Without your love' and watching the preview video, it's clear that Armenia really has come up with a pretty strong début entry. However, I fear it just lacks that extra sparkle that would allow televoters to remember it after hearing 22 subsequent songs. I think Armenia will come close, but my hunch is that Andre will finish around 11th to 13th, just missing out on a place in the Final.
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2. Bulgaria
My prediction for Semi Final: 14th to 16th
For me, this is one of the best Eurovision songs I've ever heard - I think it's just wonderful, and I'm sure it will be considered a Eurovision evergreen in years to come. However, the song's draw (2nd in the Semi Final) is terrible, sandwiched among a string of songs that are all unlikely to qualify for the Final, and its understated classiness means that it risks being forgotten by the time people come to vote an hour and a half later. I would be absolutely delighted if Bulgaria qualified for the Final with this; however, I think a position in the mid teens (14th to 16th) might be the best that we can hope for. However, reports from the rehearsals seem very complimentary about Mariana's performance, so there remains a glimmer of hope. Remember, this is my prediction based on what I think will happen, not my own opinion of the song. After all, if I had my way it would be Sofia 2007, thank you very much.
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3. Slovenia
My prediction for Semi Final: 8th to 10th
Well here's a surprise - the 100% English version of the Slovenian song is really very, very good. Assuming that this is the version that Anžej performs in Athens, Slovenia still has a chance of climbing out of the Semi Final for the first time. I do find it hard to watch the video for 'Mr Nobody' without questioning why Anžej's stylists insist on making a handsome boy look so unattractive and about twice his actual age. Equally, I can't help picturing Nuša Derenda resplendent in leather (no, not like that), and thinking that if she was performing this song it would sail through to the Final with no trouble at all. However, we know that Anžej is a very strong live performer, and I sincerely hope that he makes it through. I initially feared that Slovenia could just miss out for the second year in succession, but now I'm beginning to think that 'Mr Nobody' might just make it to Saturday's Final.
Once there, I would predict a solid result around 14th to 16th place, but a position later in the running order could do wonders for Slovenia's prospects. Anyway, with odds of 66-1, this is another of my each-way bets - an outside chance, but one that will pay handsomely if it comes off.
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4. Andorra
My prediction for Semi Final: 18th to 20th
Much as I loved Marian van de Wal's 'La mirada interieur' in 2005, I do think the Andorrans have come up with by far their strongest entry yet in the form of Jenny and 'Sense tu'. What a fantastic song it is, in the tradition of some of the great Eurovision entries from Spain or Italy, and all the better for being performed in its native language. It seems to be an annual tradition that Andorra's odds at the bookmakers hover around the 100-1 mark, and once again there seems little expectation this year that the country will make it through to the Final. However, I do think that if Jenny can give a really strong performance - and that's a big if - she has an outside chance of finishing in the top ten of the Semi Final. My hunch though is that she will probably end up in the low to mid teens instead. Hopefully I'll be wrong, as it's about time the Andorrans got some reward for their valiant and enthusiastic efforts.
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5. Belarus
My prediction for Semi Final: 17th to 19th
Mmmm... I don't think anyone really expects that Belarus is going to reach the Final with this. It's not bad, but it's not great either. Most importantly, it follows in the great tradition of Belarussian Eurovision entries by garbling the English language to the point of unintelligibility - at least apart from all the 'Mama' bits. Please, please sing in Belarussian next year - honestly, no-one's going to mind. In the meantime, I predict a Semi Final placing of between 17th and 19th, probably thanks to points from Russia and Ukraine and nobody else.
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6. Albania
My prediction for Semi Final: 15th to 17th
Well, Albania has kept the song in Albanian (a good decision, I suspect), and Luiz is indeed a handsome boy. Other than that the Albanian entry doesn't have a great deal going for it, coming across as a slightly less lively version of the Armenian song. The preview video is also rather disappointing, with Luiz's performance seeming rather limp and languid as he sits on a chair and wiggles a bit. One can only hope that the live show is more eyecatching, hopefully making good use of the various older men with their traditional costumes and instruments, though reports from rehearsals do suggest that the performance continues to lack spark. In any event, I can't see 'Zjarr e ftohtë' having much chance of making the Final - 15th to 17th would be my guess for where it will end up.
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7. Belgium
My prediction for Semi Final: 1st to 3rd
Well, this is going to qualify isn't it? The only question is whether Kate Ryan is going to win the Semi Final. However, as the first definite qualifier - a hefty seven songs in - she must have a very good chance.
Of course, in being a very contemporary pop-dance song weighed down by the weight of Belgian expectation it is not surprising that some people have questioned whether Kate might do a Xandee - otherwise known as doing a Marlain or a Corinna. Fortunately, unlike those who have flopped before her, Kate has the advantage of being able to sing live (as long as she isn't trying to dance too vigorously at the same time), and even if she does make a mess of it the Swedish backing singers will surely come to the rescue. Equally, she is unlikely to wear an outfit quite as unflattering as the one sported by Xandee in Istanbul.
Talking of unflattering outfits (but not talking of flopping), I can't help feeling that the decision to feature Kate in a skimpy bikini in her preview video was an ill-advised one. Now, I don't make a habit of looking at boobs, you'll understand, but surely if you're going to draw undue attention to someone waving her breasts around it's best that there's actually something to look at? :) No offence meant Kate - I love you and I love your song! [hugs from Graham]
Assuming Kate gives a strong enough performance to make it through to the Final she will certainly be one of the contenders for victory. However, she may have her work cut out seeing off Bosnia, Greece and Romania, particularly if Belgium gets a bad draw in the Final - straight after a fantastic performance from Greece or Romania, for instance.
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8. Ireland
My prediction for Semi Final: 12th to 14th
Performing straight after Belgium's uptempo entry in the Semi Final, Ireland's song will certainly contrast with the one performed before it - whether this is beneficial or not to Ireland I'm not yet sure. What a disappointing preview video, though - it's as if RTE couldn't afford to film a whole three minutes, so they awkwardly spliced some newly recorded scenes of Brian wandering around Ireland with footage of his original performance on the 'Late Late Show'. As for the song, it's very nice. Will it qualify? I'm not sure. It's a solid effort, much better than most other Irish entries of the last decade, and almost universally enthusiastic reports from rehearsals suggest that Brian does sell it extremely well. Much will therefore depend on whether people at home rate the song, but in a competitive field I fear it may just lack the extra lift that would propel it into the Final. If it does make it, it will surely be thanks to Brian Kennedy's experience and strength as a live performer.
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9. Cyprus
My prediction for Semi Final: 9th to 11th
On paper, Cyprus' Semi Final draw - coming straight after another ballad from Ireland - is not a very positive one. On the other hand, Annette's ballad is certainly more powerful than Brian Kennedy's, and will get a lift through the presence of lots of Greek and Cypriot support in the Olympic Indoor Arena. I know that many people are unconvinced by the Cypriot song, but I do think it will make it through to the Final. Like Lisa Andreas two years ago, it's one of those songs that is wholly dependent on the strength of the live performance - a mesmerising performance on the night could see it come close to winning; an awful performance could see it disappear without trace. My prediction, I guess, is hedging its bets by being somewhere between the two.
Assuming Annette makes it through, she will certainly be hoping to avoid being drawn next to another big ballad - after Greece, in particular. Given that I'm not sure what to predict for Annette in the Semi Final, the Final is even harder to call. My prediction is 15th to 17th, but I've placed my customary each-way bet at 50-1 just in case she manages to do a Shiri and finish higher than anybody is predicting.
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10. Monaco
My prediction for Semi Final: 19th to 21st
I'm really not sure what to make of this song. It's horribly cutesy, yet there's something rather endearing and enjoyable about it. Séverine also has an Alizée-esque gamin charm that will appeal to many of the male televoters. For now I think it will do a little better than the two previous Monegasque entries, but not well enough to secure a place in the Final. However, it's a potential dark horse that could yet spring a surprise, depending on the strength or otherwise of Séverine's performance.
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11. Macedonia (FYR)
My prediction for Semi Final: 6th to 8th
Performing 11th in the Semi Final, Macedonia - or the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, or FYR Macedonia, or FYROM or whether you'd prefer me to call it (delete as applicable) - has a song that is undoubtedly better than its two previous efforts. 'Ninanajna' also has a reasonable draw, and has managed to avoid being performed anywhere near the really quite similar-sounding Turkish song. It's an appealing entry, and the translation into English has proved quite successful, so I'd be surprised if Elena failed to follow her predecessors into the Final.
Once there, however, Macedonia's entries do have a habit of underperforming, and I would be surprised if Elena managed to better the 17th place achieved by Martin Vucic in 2005.
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12. Poland
My prediction for Semi Final: 13th to 15th
This is a tricky one - will Ich Troje pull off a good performance in Athens, or is it all going to end up a bit of a mess with too many languages and too many singers? At the moment, my hunch is that it may be the latter, with Poland just missing out on a place in the Final for the second year in a row.
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13. Russia
My prediction for Semi Final: 5th to 7th
Cute boy, strong song - what is there not to like? Russia often benefits more than most from neighbourly voting, partly because it has a lot of neighbours. This has resulted in some previous Russian entries doing surprisingly well even when most of Europe has given them a wide berth. However, with an artist who has already enjoyed significant success in Russia and beyond, and a song that is genuinely rather appealing, the combination of votes from neighbours and further afield should be enough to propel Russia fairly comfortably into the Final.
Once there, and depending on the draw, I think the Russian entry may get a little lost among other strong pop songs performed by appealing male singers, such as Romania's Mihai and Malta's Fabrizio. I can see Dima challenging for a place in the Final top ten, though my prediction is that he will just miss out.
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14. Turkey
My prediction for Semi Final: 7th to 9th
So, what of Kylie Madonna-Bexter, aka Sibel Tüzün? Well, it certainly gets top marks for the preview video - one of the most effective and professional ones that we've seen this year. In Athens, much will depend on whether the visual appeal of the video can be translated into a live performance. Yet, as I said earlier in reply to someone else's comment, we are yet to see and hear the song performed live, meaning that "the problem is that it's all a bit of an unknown quantity... we're asked to believe in something we haven't really been shown yet". Yes, the hype coming out of the Turkish camp is phenomenal and wearying, but so far, we have lots of words - rather than evidence - that Sibel's going to be great on the night. Yet the song alone is no great shakes - it's almost irritatingly repetitive, and if it wasn't for the fact that Sibel is a respected performer, as well as the fact that we're continually being told how brilliant it's supposed to be, I don't think many people would be giving 'Süper star' a second glance. I also think the decision to perform in Turkish - despite an English version being distributed too - is a strange one that may affect the song's chances. Ballads and ethnic songs often work best in their original language, but there's arguably more of a case for singing a modern pop-dance song in English. Even the bookies are unconvinced, with the Turkish entry one of very few that is significantly less well-regarded in the betting than in the fan polls. This may suggest that the fan polls are suspect - however, while there have been a lot of dodgy votes for Turkey in the Soult.com Eurovision Jury Vote 2006 (and these have been removed, just like any other dodgy votes for other countries), there are also lots of completely valid votes going Sibel's way. So, I suspect that 'Süper star' will qualify, but don't be surprised if it goes and does an Agurbash, a victim of hype over substance.
If it does get to the Final, my prediction for 'Süper star' is a placing just outside the top ten, probably not too dissimilar to Gülseren's 13th place from 2005.
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15. Ukraine
My prediction for Semi Final: 16th to 18th
This one worries me. Tina Karol's song is certainly less grating now that she's got rid of her queens, though it remains repetitive and rather yelping. However, some people have a sneaking regard for it, more so after a series of impressive rehearsal performances. There's a chance, of course, that they could be right, and that Ukraine could pull off a famous second victory. However, even Ukraine's neighbours were little help to it last year, and I suspect that we're once again looking at a result comparable to Greenjolly or Olexandr, rather than to Ruslana. Don't be surprised if i'm wrong though...
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16. Finland
My prediction for Semi Final: 3rd to 5th
Hard rock hallelujah' may divide opinion among the Eurovision fans, but there's no disputing that Lordi's preview video is one of the best this year, and we know from the Finnish national final that the whole monster thing is equally startling on stage. It's striking, memorable and completely different, and if it fails to qualify I'll be amazed.
Once in the Final, the novelty of ''Hard rock hallelujah' is likely to wear off a little, particularly among those viewers who have already seen it in the Semi. However, I do think Finland will be challenging for a place in the top ten of the Final, and stands an outside chance of bettering its 1973 high of 6th place.
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17. Netherlands
My prediction for Semi Final: 20th to 22nd
So, what will Europe make of 'Sanomibanda'? If nothing else, it provides a good contrast with the Finnish entry that precedes it, and it's a nice entry - memorable, different and enthusiastically performed by three attractive girls. Unfortunately, given the competition for ten qualifying places I just can't see the Netherlands making it, but there's always an outside chance that Treble could pull off a surprise. Who knows, maybe its easygoing charm will prove appealing, sandwiched between the excesses of Lordi and LT United?
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18. Lithuania
My prediction for Semi Final: 21st to 23rd
Debate has raged in the comments section of Soult.com Eurovision's Lithuanian page, with lots of Lithuanians offering interesting explanations (some intelligent and articulate, others more rude) for why 'We are the winners' is brilliant rather than rubbish. I can see what they're getting at, but I just think there are ways of making fun of Eurovision in cleverer ways than this. For me, LT United is a novelty too far, and I think most of Europe will be completely baffled by it. Who's going to know or care that Lithuania scored nothing on its début, or finished last in 2005? People are just going to judge this 'song' on its own merits, and that surely cannot bode well for its chances of success.
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19. Portugal
My prediction for Semi Final: 22nd to 23rd
What can I say? This song and performance is so dismal it defies belief. If Portugal couldn't make it out of the Semi Final with the really rather good 'Amar' in 2005, the only question is whether S Club Sevennem will avoid finishing last. I suspect not, and if it wasn't for the votes of Andorra we could surely have a Piero-equalling 'nul points' situation on our hands. It's as terrible as the Lithuanian entry, but without the defence of being ironic. Do Sheila's Wheels provide insurance against performances as well as cars?
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20. Sweden
My prediction for Semi Final: 4th to 6th
OK, ok - this IS going to qualify isn't it? 'Invincible' is predictable all right, but it ticks all the Eurovision boxes, has a great performer, works well in its English translation and - most importantly - has a perfect draw, 20th out of 23 in the Semi Final.
I still don't see it as a winner though, and suspect that a good top ten placing in the Final might be more realistic.
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21. Estonia
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Without your love![[Status: up] Andre with 'Without your love', representing Armenia, is currently ranked 11 out of 23, compared to 12 out of 23 after the previous update. Position trend (most recent first): 11-12--](/eurovision/images/juryvote/up15x11.gif){kind=small}
Let me cry
Mr Nobody [Plan B]
Sense tu
Mum![[Status: same] Polina Smolova with 'Mum', representing Belarus, is currently ranked 23 out of 23, compared to 23 out of 23 after the previous update. Position trend (most recent first): 23-23--](/eurovision/images/juryvote/same15x11.gif){kind=small}
Zjarr e ftohtë![[Status: down] Luiz Ejlli with 'Zjarr e ftohtë', representing Albania, is currently ranked 17 out of 23, compared to 16 out of 23 after the previous update. Position trend (most recent first): 17-16--](/eurovision/images/juryvote/down15x11.gif){kind=small}
Je t'adore
Every song is a cry for love
Why angels cry
La coco-dance
Ninanajna
Follow my heart
Never let you go
Süper star
Show me your love
Hard rock hallelujah
Amanbanda
We are the winners
Coisas de nada
Invincible [Evighet]
Through my window