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2006 Archive
The 2006 Eurovision Song Contest was held in Athens, Greece - use the menu on the left to find out about all the entries, including my reviews and predictions.
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Final Predictions
Well here they are - my predictions for the 2006 Final. See my run through of the 14 known Finalists, together with the 10 entries that I predict will qualify from the Semi Final, in ascending order of predicted success!
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Denmark
My prediction for Final: 23rd to 24th
It's a rare feat when I find a Eurovision song so bad I can't bring myself to listen to it in its entirety. Before writing my prediction, I forced myself to listen to 'Twist of love' again, just in case I had been unreasonably harsh. I hadn't.
The polls and bookies alike suggest that Denmark will struggle to make much of an impression in Athens, and I suspect they may well be right. Certainly, I never want to hear anything about Connie and Johnny ever, ever again...
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Moldova
My prediction for Final: 22nd to 24th
The Moldovan entry is another one sitting near the bottom of the polls and with bookmakers' odds consistently rating its chances as 100-1 or longer. Again, there's nothing particularly bad about the song, but it certainly lacks the quirky appeal that brought Moldova such a great result in 2005. Being performed 2nd in the Final - the position from which no country has ever won Eurovision - would seem to be the last straw. Indeed, I suspect that Arsenium and his posse will be echoing Javine's (2005) and Tie Break's (2004) points tally as well as their position in the running order.
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Israel
My prediction for Final: 21st to 23rd
It's a nice enough song... but I really think it will take a miracle for Israel to repeat its success of 2005. The polls and bookmakers suggest that Israel will finish among the bottom few of the Final, and I suspect that may well be the case. Reports from rehearsals are positive though, so perhaps Eddie will do better than anyone expects.
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France
My prediction for Final: 20th to 22nd
It's hard to say anything bad about this song, as it really is very nice and pleasant. Unfortunately, pleasant isn't usually enough to win Eurovision, and I fear that the French song will get lost among its more memorable competitors. Virginie has a lovely voice, and the song is a grower, but I can't see even a strong performance lifting the French song out of the bottom few. Certainly, with odds as long as 250-1 on a French victory, anything better than a handful of points will be more than many expect.
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Spain
My prediction for Final: 19th to 21st
Well, I still haven't managed to hear Las Ketchup perform live, though the version of the song on the official CD does benefit from a little more energy than the first recording we heard a couple of months ago. If you believe the polls and bookmakers, Las Ketchup's prospects are not quite as hopeless as some of the other Finalists, hovering around 14th out of 37 in the Soult.com Eurovision Jury Vote 2006, and with typical odds of around 80-1. However, I will be very surprised if 'Bloody Mary' can manage anything higher than a berth in the mid teens.
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Iceland
My prediction for Final: Definite qualifier; 18th to 20th
To start with I really wasn't sure what might happen to the Icelandic song in Athens - would it strike a chord with the televoters, or would no-one get it? However, two important things have happened. First, the translation into English has, in my view, greatly enhanced this song's chances, despite my fears to the contrary before hearing it. Second, it has the perfect draw, with Silvía bringing the Semi Final to a lively and memorable close. So, as is often the case for Marmite songs - ones that you either love or hate - I think the polls may well be underestimating the Icelandic chances of success. For me, it's a definite qualifier, as long as Silvia's diva-esque antics in Athens don't alienate everyone in the same way as t.A.T.u did three years ago; reports of booing at the first dress rehearsal certainly suggest that Silvia's colourful attitude and language has gone down like a lead balloon in Athens.
Interestingly, the Soult.com Eurovision Jury Vote 2006 suggests that Iceland may pick up enough points from enough countries to make it through to the Final, but will then struggle against the higher calibre of competition. This reflects my own thoughts, and I do think that Iceland could be this year's Re-union (Netherlands, 2004) - benefiting from performing last in the Semi Final, before slumping to a much less impressive result on Saturday.
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Macedonia (FYR)
My prediction for Final: Likely qualifier; 17th to 19th
Performing 11th in the Semi Final, Macedonia - or the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, or FYR Macedonia, or FYROM or whether you'd prefer me to call it (delete as applicable) - has a song that is undoubtedly better than its two previous efforts. 'Ninanajna' also has a reasonable draw, and has managed to avoid being performed anywhere near the really quite similar-sounding Turkish song. It's an appealing entry, and the translation into English has proved quite successful, so I'd be surprised if Elena failed to follow her predecessors into the Final.
Once there, however, Macedonia's entries do have a habit of underperforming, and I would be surprised if Elena managed to better the 17th place achieved by Martin Vucic in 2005.
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Switzerland
My prediction for Final: 16th to 18th
Of all the 2006 entries, the Swiss song is perhaps the hardest to call. It has consistently underperformed in the fan polls, with the Soult.com Eurovision Jury Vote 2006 suggesting that 'If we all give a little' will end up among the bottom few entries in the Final. However, the bookies' odds have been consistently optimistic, kicking off at 14-1 and only now starting to slump. In almost all other cases the polls and bookmakers have shown broad agreement, so just who's right about the Swiss entry? I suspect that performing first in the Final may help the Swiss position, as at least then the televoters will have nothing else to compare it against. However, much will depend on the quality of the live vocal and stage performance - still a bit of an unknown quantity prior to the rehearsals - and on whether people judge that the song is simply ten (or twenty) years too late. Much as I have a sneaking regard for it, my prediction is that the Swiss song may struggle to pick up the Europe-wide support that it needs, ending up somewhere mid table.
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Cyprus
My prediction for Final: Possible qualifier; 15th to 17th
On paper, Cyprus' Semi Final draw - coming straight after another ballad from Ireland - is not a very positive one. On the other hand, Annette's ballad is certainly more powerful than Brian Kennedy's, and will get a lift through the presence of lots of Greek and Cypriot support in the Olympic Indoor Arena. I know that many people are unconvinced by the Cypriot song, but I do think it will make it through to the Final. Like Lisa Andreas two years ago, it's one of those songs that is wholly dependent on the strength of the live performance - a mesmerising performance on the night could see it come close to winning; an awful performance could see it disappear without trace. My prediction, I guess, is hedging its bets by being somewhere between the two.
Assuming Annette makes it through, she will certainly be hoping to avoid being drawn next to another big ballad - after Greece, in particular. Given that I'm not sure what to predict for Annette in the Semi Final, the Final is even harder to call. My prediction is 15th to 17th, but I've placed my customary each-way bet at 50-1 just in case she manages to do a Shiri and finish higher than anybody is predicting.
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Slovenia
My prediction for Final: Possible qualifier; 14th to 16th
Well here's a surprise - the 100% English version of the Slovenian song is really very, very good. Assuming that this is the version that Anžej performs in Athens, Slovenia still has a chance of climbing out of the Semi Final for the first time. I do find it hard to watch the video for 'Mr Nobody' without questioning why Anžej's stylists insist on making a handsome boy look so unattractive and about twice his actual age. Equally, I can't help picturing Nuša Derenda resplendent in leather (no, not like that), and thinking that if she was performing this song it would sail through to the Final with no trouble at all. However, we know that Anžej is a very strong live performer, and I sincerely hope that he makes it through. I initially feared that Slovenia could just miss out for the second year in succession, but now I'm beginning to think that 'Mr Nobody' might just make it to Saturday's Final.
Once there, I would predict a solid result around 14th to 16th place, but a position later in the running order could do wonders for Slovenia's prospects. Anyway, with odds of 66-1, this is another of my each-way bets - an outside chance, but one that will pay handsomely if it comes off.
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Turkey
My prediction for Final: Likely qualifier; 13th to 15th
So, what of Kylie Madonna-Bexter, aka Sibel Tüzün? Well, it certainly gets top marks for the preview video - one of the most effective and professional ones that we've seen this year. In Athens, much will depend on whether the visual appeal of the video can be translated into a live performance. Yet, as I said earlier in reply to someone else's comment, we are yet to see and hear the song performed live, meaning that "the problem is that it's all a bit of an unknown quantity... we're asked to believe in something we haven't really been shown yet". Yes, the hype coming out of the Turkish camp is phenomenal and wearying, but so far, we have lots of words - rather than evidence - that Sibel's going to be great on the night. Yet the song alone is no great shakes - it's almost irritatingly repetitive, and if it wasn't for the fact that Sibel is a respected performer, as well as the fact that we're continually being told how brilliant it's supposed to be, I don't think many people would be giving 'Süper star' a second glance. I also think the decision to perform in Turkish - despite an English version being distributed too - is a strange one that may affect the song's chances. Ballads and ethnic songs often work best in their original language, but there's arguably more of a case for singing a modern pop-dance song in English. Even the bookies are unconvinced, with the Turkish entry one of very few that is significantly less well-regarded in the betting than in the fan polls. This may suggest that the fan polls are suspect - however, while there have been a lot of dodgy votes for Turkey in the Soult.com Eurovision Jury Vote 2006 (and these have been removed, just like any other dodgy votes for other countries), there are also lots of completely valid votes going Sibel's way. So, I suspect that 'Süper star' will qualify, but don't be surprised if it goes and does an Agurbash, a victim of hype over substance.
If it does get to the Final, my prediction for 'Süper star' is a placing just outside the top ten, probably not too dissimilar to Gülseren's 13th place from 2005.
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Latvia
My prediction for Final: 12th to 14th
Latvia's song is so different to anything else in the competition, I suspect it would stand out regardless of its position in the draw. As it is, 'I hear your heart' has the benefit of being performed directly after the rather dreary Israeli entry, in the 4th slot that proved so successful for Sertab in 2003 and Luminita Anghel in 2005. It's really hard to judge how this type of song will go down among ther televoters - it could completely bomb, or could do really well. However, depending on the quality of the live performance I think we could yet see another top ten placing for Latvia in Athens.
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Russia
My prediction for Final: Likely qualifier; 11th to 13th
Cute boy, strong song - what is there not to like? Russia often benefits more than most from neighbourly voting, partly because it has a lot of neighbours. This has resulted in some previous Russian entries doing surprisingly well even when most of Europe has given them a wide berth. However, with an artist who has already enjoyed significant success in Russia and beyond, and a song that is genuinely rather appealing, the combination of votes from neighbours and further afield should be enough to propel Russia fairly comfortably into the Final.
Once there, and depending on the draw, I think the Russian entry may get a little lost among other strong pop songs performed by appealing male singers, such as Romania's Mihai and Malta's Fabrizio. I can see Dima challenging for a place in the Final top ten, though my prediction is that he will just miss out.
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Finland
My prediction for Final: Definite qualifier; 10th to 12th
Hard rock hallelujah' may divide opinion among the Eurovision fans, but there's no disputing that Lordi's preview video is one of the best this year, and we know from the Finnish national final that the whole monster thing is equally startling on stage. It's striking, memorable and completely different, and if it fails to qualify I'll be amazed.
Once in the Final, the novelty of ''Hard rock hallelujah' is likely to wear off a little, particularly among those viewers who have already seen it in the Semi. However, I do think Finland will be challenging for a place in the top ten of the Final, and stands an outside chance of bettering its 1973 high of 6th place.
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United Kingdom
My prediction for Final: 9th to 11th
Without a doubt, 'Teenage life' is the kind of entry that some people will love and others will detest - but that's good, as no-one ever wins Eurovision by blandly appealing across the board. For now, Daz and 'Teenage life' have at least for now given the UK it's Eurovision mojo back - we have a song that *could* just be a winner, and even if it fails, no-one can say we didn't try something bold and different. On balance I suspect that victory may be a little too much to ask, and that a place in the top ten will be the best that the UK can hope for. However, that would certainly be welcome given the UK's performances of late.
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Sweden
My prediction for Final: Likely qualifier; 8th to 10th
OK, ok - this IS going to qualify isn't it? 'Invincible' is predictable all right, but it ticks all the Eurovision boxes, has a great performer, works well in its English translation and - most importantly - has a perfect draw, 20th out of 23 in the Semi Final.
I still don't see it as a winner though, and suspect that a good top ten placing in the Final might be more realistic.
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Croatia
My prediction for Final: 7th to 9th
At odds of 20-1, I have to confess to placing a sneaking each-way bet on Severina. At first I thought the song and performance was really irritating, but the more I hear it the more I appreciate its cheeky charm and the fact that it actually sounds like a song from the country it's representing. So keep an eye on this one - it's definitely growing on me, and if the televoters decide they aren't yet fed up of 'ethnic stomping' (Graham makes a note to trademark that phrase) it could do very well indeed, helped by its great draw towards the end of the running order. Another song with an outside chance of winning, and another of my each-way bets (at 20-1).
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Malta
My prediction for Final: 6th to 8th
For me, the lack of support for the Maltese song has been one of the surprises of the last couple of months, with Fabrizio hovering around 12th or 13th out of 37 in the Soult.com Eurovision Jury Vote 2006, and with the bookmakers' odds drifting as low as 80-1. I think this underestimates the Maltese chances, particularly given that Fabrizio managed to finish 9th in 2001 with a song that I feel was much inferior to 'I do'. This year, we have a catchy song that sticks in your head after one listen, performed by probably the best looking male in the Contest who we already know is an experienced and engaging live performer. Indeed, every time I hear this song, I'm reminded of how surprisingly good it is - it sounds for all the world like a potential Eurovision winner. If it wasn't for some niggling doubts over whether Fabrizio can pull it off live, and the fact that there are so many other strong contenders this year, I'd say that Malta might be in with a chance. In any event, I've placed my £2 each-way bet at 80-1 and will pick up £160 if Malta manages to finish in the top four of the Final. I reckon it could happen...
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Germany
My prediction for Final: 5th to 7th, possible winner
In a Contest full of some quite dramatic and noisy entries, there is always a danger that 'No no never' could be overshadowed - is it just too gently melodic to make a big impression at Eurovision, or could that same quality be a reason for it to do very well indeed? The song is certainly exquisitely performed by the beautiful Jane Comerford and her posse, and at the very least, I'm sure Germany will do significantly better in 2006 than it did in 2005 - not necessarily a difficult task given Gracia's measly points tally last year. I do consider the German song to be one of the entries that *could* win in Athens, though I suspect that a solid top six placing might be more likely. I've placed an each-way bet, just to make sure...
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Norway
My prediction for Final: 4th to 6th, possible winner
I think Norway is one of 2006's dark horses. Just like Sertab's 'Everyway that I can' in 2003, Alvedansen is a song that has performed consistently well in the polls and bookmakers' odds while never being among the hot favourites. However, I see it as one of the possible contenders for victory, certainly with a very good chance of ending up in the top ten, and reports from rehearsals suggest that Christine is winning converts with her impressive performance of a beautiful song. It's been a while since something gentle won Eurovision, and 2006 could be the year that changes. With that in mind, my each-way bet at 20-1 seems quite promising.
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Belgium
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Twist of love![[Status: down] Sidsel Ben Semmane with 'Twist of love', representing Denmark, is currently ranked 21 out of 37, compared to 18 out of 37 after the previous update. Position trend (most recent first): 21-18--](/eurovision/images/juryvote/down15x11.gif){kind=small}
Loca![[Status: up] Arsenium featuring Natalia Gordienko and Connect-R with 'Loca', representing Moldova, is currently ranked 19 out of 37, compared to 21 out of 37 after the previous update. Position trend (most recent first): 19-21--](/eurovision/images/juryvote/up15x11.gif){kind=small}
Together we are one [Ze hasman]
Il était temps![[Status: same] Virginie Pouchain with 'Il était temps', representing France, is currently ranked 24 out of 37, compared to 24 out of 37 after the previous update. Position trend (most recent first): 24-24--](/eurovision/images/juryvote/same15x11.gif){kind=small}
Bloody Mary
Congratulations [Til hamingju Ísland]
Ninanajna
If we all give a little
Why angels cry
Mr Nobody [Plan B]
Süper star
I hear your heart
Never let you go
Hard rock hallelujah
Teenage life
Invincible [Evighet]
Moja štikla
I Do
No, no, never
Alvedansen
Je t'adore