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Support Scooch!
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My predictions...
Here they are, in full - there's no going back now. If I'm right (but I probably won't be), it's Malta or Hungary to win Eurovision 2005.
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Semi Final: 19 May 2005
Published 18 May 2005 (before Semi Final)
Predicted placings are shown in the left-hand column; the ten countries I predict will qualify for the Final are marked with a 'Q'. Click on the flags or country names to read a detailed review and prediction for each entry.
Ps
|
|
Country
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Artist
|
Title
|
Q?
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1
|
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Hungary
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NOX
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Forogj világ
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Q
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2
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Iceland
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Selma
|
If I had your love
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Q
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3
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Norway
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Wig Wam
|
In my dreams
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Q
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4
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Netherlands
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Glennis Grace
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My impossible dream
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Q
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5
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Belarus
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Angelica Agurbash
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Love me tonight
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Q
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6
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Moldova
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Zdob si Zdub
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Bunica bate toba
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Q
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7
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Switzerland
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Vanilla Ninja
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Cool vibes
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Q
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8
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Romania
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Luminita Anghel & Sistem
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Let me try
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Q
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9
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Poland
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Ivan and Delfin
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Czarna dziewczyna
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Q
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10
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Portugal
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2B (Rui & Luciana)
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Amar
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Q
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11
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Lithuania
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Laura & The Lovers
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Little by little
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12
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Austria
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Global.Kryner
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Y así
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13
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Croatia
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Boris Novković feat. Lado Members
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Vukovi umiru sami
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14
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Macedonia
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Martin Vucic
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Make my day (Ti si son)
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15
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Latvia
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Walters & Kazha
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The war is not over
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16
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Finland
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Geir Rönning
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Why
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17
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Estonia
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Suntribe
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Let's get loud
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18
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Slovenia
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Omar Naber
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Stop
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19
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Belgium
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Nuno Resende
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Le grand soir
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20
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Israel
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Shiri Maymon
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Hasheket shenish'ar
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21
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Denmark
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Jacob Sveistrup
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Talking to you (Tænder på dig)
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22
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Monaco
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Lise Darly
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Tout de moi
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23
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Andorra
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Marian van de Wal
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La mirada interior
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24
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Ireland
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Donna & Joe
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Love?
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25
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Bulgaria
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Kaffe
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Lorrain
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 top of page
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Final: 21 May 2005
Published 18 May 2005 (before Semi Final)
Predicted placings are shown in the left-hand column. Click on the flags or country names to read a detailed review and prediction for each entry.
Ps?
|
|
Country
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Artist
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Title
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1
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Malta
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Chiara
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Angel
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2
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Hungary
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NOX
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Forogj világ
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3
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Iceland
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Selma
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If I had your love
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4
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Greece
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Helena Paparizou
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My number one
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5
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Norway
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Wig Wam
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In my dreams
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6
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Netherlands
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Glennis Grace
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My impossible dream
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7
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Belarus
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Angelica Agurbash
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Love me tonight
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8
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Moldova
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Zdob si Zdub
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Bunica bate toba
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9
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Serbia & Mon.
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No Name
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Zauvijek moja
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10
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United Kingdom
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Javine
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Touch my fire
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11
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Switzerland
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Vanilla Ninja
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Cool vibes
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12
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Bosnia-Herz.
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Feminnem
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Call me (Zovi)
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13
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Spain
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Son de Sol
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Brujería
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14
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Romania
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Luminita Anghel & Sistem
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Let me try
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15
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Poland
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Ivan and Delfin
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Czarna dziewczyna
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16
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Portugal
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2B (Rui & Luciana)
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Amar
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17
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Turkey
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Gülseren
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Rim rimi ley
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18
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Cyprus
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Constantinos Christoforou
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Ela ela
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20
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Ukraine
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Greenjolly
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Razom nas bahato, nas nye podolaty
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21
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France
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Ortal
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Chacun pense à soi
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22
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Russia
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Natalia Podolskaya
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Nobody hurt no one
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23
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Sweden
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Martin Stenmarck
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Las Vegas
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24
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Germany
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Gracia
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Run and hide
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top of page
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Analysis
Total difference between my predicted placings and the actual placings for each song, when ranked in order of 1 to 39:
334 (310 in 2004)
Average difference between predicted placing and actual placing:
8.56 (8.61 in 2004)
Total difference between the Soult.com Eurovision Poll 2005 placings and the actual placings for each song, when ranked in order of 1 to 39:
308 (214 in 2004)
Average difference between Soult.com Eurovision Poll 2005 placing and actual placing:
7.90 (5.94 in 2004)
Though the total difference between my predicted placings and the actual placings for each song was higher than in 2004, the average for each song was marginally lower due to there being 39 entrants in 2005 rather than 36. So, my 2005 predictions were more accurate than those of 2004 - though only by a fraction - despite there being more songs to pick from.
My biggest boo-boos were significantly underestimating the performances of Denmark, Israel and Latvia, while overestimating those of Belarus, Iceland and the Netherlands - these six songs accounted for nearly half of the difference between my predictions and the actual results.
Embarrassingly, the Soult.com Eurovision Poll once again proved a more accurate predictor of Eurovision form than I did - despite being a poll of visitors' own tastes, not their predictions - with a total difference of 308 making an average difference of 7.90.
However, this was significantly less accurate than the 2004 Poll, where the total difference between the Poll's placings and the actual placings was just 214, making an impressive average difference of 5.94. Like me, the Poll overestimated the appeal of Iceland at the expense of Denmark and Latvia, but its biggest discrepancy in relation to the actual result concerned the Lithuanian entry, ranked 3rd in the Soult.com Eurovision Poll 2005, but actually ending up a staggering 36 places below that.
Who knows, if I continue to improve and the Poll continues to favour Lithuania, I might yet beat it in 2006...
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