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Support Scooch!
Download 'Flying The Flag (For You)' at iTunes and help get Scooch back into the UK singles chart!
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My predictions...
Here they are, in full - there's no going back now. If I'm right (but I probably won't be), it's Iceland or Germany to win Eurovision 2004.
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Semi Final: 12 May 2004
Published May 2004 (before Semi Final)
Predicted placings are shown in the left-hand column; the ten countries I predict will qualify for the Final are marked with a 'Q'. Click on the flags or country names to read a detailed review and prediction for each entry.
Ps
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Country
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Artist
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Title
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Q?
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1
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Malta
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Julie & Ludwig
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On again...off again
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Q
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2
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Ukraine
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Ruslana
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Wild dances
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Q
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3
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Cyprus
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Lisa Andreas
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Stronger every minute
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Q
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4
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Belarus
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Aleksandra & Konstantin
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My Galileo
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Q
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5
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Estonia
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Neiokõsõ
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Tii
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Q
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6
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Finland
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Jari Sillanpää
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Takes 2 to tango
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Q
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7
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Albania
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Anjeza Shahini
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The image of you (Imazhi yt)
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Q
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8
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Netherlands
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Re-union
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Without you
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Q
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9
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Bosnia-Herz.
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Deen
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In the disco
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Q
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10
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Denmark
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Tomas Thordarson
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Shame on you (Sig det' løgn)
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Q
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11
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Monaco
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Maryon
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Notre planète
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12
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Greece
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Sakis Rouvas
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Shake it
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13
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Andorra
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Marta Roure
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Jugarem a estimar-nos
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14
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Serbia & Mon.
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Željko Joksimović
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Lane moje
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15
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Israel
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David D'or
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Le'ha'amin
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16
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Switzerland
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Piero Esteriore & the MusicStars
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Celebrate
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17
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Latvia
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Fomins & Kleins
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Dziesma par laimi
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18
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Croatia
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Ivan Mikulić
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You are the only one (Dajes mi krila)
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19
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Macedonia
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Tose Proeski
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Life
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20
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Slovenia
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Platin
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Stay forever
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21
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Lithuania
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Linas & Simona
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What happened to your love
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22
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Portugal
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Sofia
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Foi Magia
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 top of page
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Final: 15 May 2004
Published May 2004 (before Semi Final)
Predicted placings are shown in the left-hand column. Click on the flags or country names to read a detailed review and prediction for each entry.
Ps?
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Country
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Artist
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Title
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1
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Germany
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Max (Maximilian Mutzke)
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Can't wait until tonight
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2
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Iceland
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Jónsi
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Heaven
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3
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Sweden
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Lena Philipsson
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It hurts (Det gör ont)
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4
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United Kingdom
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James Fox
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Hold on to our love
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5
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Ukraine
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Ruslana
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Wild dances
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6
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Malta
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Julie & Ludwig
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On again...off again
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7
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Cyprus
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Lisa Andreas
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Stronger every minute
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8
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Albania
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Anjeza Shahini
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The image of you (Imazhi yt)
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9
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Romania
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Sanda Ladosi
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I admit
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10
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Estonia
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Neiokõsõ
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Tii
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11
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Belarus
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Aleksandra & Konstantin
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My Galileo
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12
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Belgium
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Xandee
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1 Life
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13
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Poland
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Blue Cafe
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Love Song
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14
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Norway
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Knut Anders Sørum
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High
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15
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Bosnia-Herz.
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Deen
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In the disco
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16
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Netherlands
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Re-union
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Without you
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17
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Spain
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Ramón
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Para llenarme de ti
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18
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Russia
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Julia Savicheva
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Believe me
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19
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Finland
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Jari Sillanpää
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Takes 2 to tango
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20
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Turkey
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Athena
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For real
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21
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France
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Jonatan Cerrada
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A chaque pas
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22
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Denmark
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Tomas Thordarson
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Shame on you (Sig det' løgn)
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23
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Austria
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Tie Break
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Du bist
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24
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Ireland
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Chris Doran
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If my world stopped turning
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top of page
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Analysis
Total difference between my predicted placings and the actual placings for each song, when ranked in order of 1 to 36:
310
Average difference between predicted placing and actual placing:
8.61
Total difference between the Soult.com Eurovision Poll 2004 placings and the actual placings for each song, when ranked in order of 1 to 36:
214
Average difference between Soult.com Eurovision Poll 2004 placing and actual placing:
5.94
in 2004, my biggest errors were significantly underestimating the performances of Croatia, Greece, Macedonia and Serbia & Montenegro, while overestimating that of Belarus - only my prediction for Latvia was spot on, with another 13 predictions less than five placings out either way.
Embarrassingly, the Soult.com Eurovision Poll proved a significantly more accurate predictor of Eurovision form than I did, despite being a poll of visitors' own tastes, rather than their predictions. With a total difference between the Poll's placings and the actual placings of 214, the average difference was just 5.94 - pretty impressive in a field of 36 songs. Compared to the actual placings, the Poll produced very few outrageous results, the biggest being to rate the Belgian entry far too highly, while failing to reciprocate the Russian song's Contest success.
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